Cumin Prices Hit All-Time High on NCDEX with April Futures Crossing Rs 39,000 and Upper Circuit Installed

Jeera reached its highest level on NCDEX, know what is the reason behind this rise

The price of Jeera (cumin) has hit an all-time high on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX). As of April, cumin futures have surpassed 39,000 and an upper circuit has been implemented on NCDEX. In the Unjha Mandi, cumin prices have exceeded 40,000, with prices reaching Rs 42,000 on April 8th. Even in Bilara, cumin prices have crossed Rs 40,000 due to an increase in both domestic and foreign demand. The decrease in cumin production this year has caused prices to soar. The bad weather has resulted in a 15-20% decrease in cumin production in Rajasthan, and the quality has been affected by unseasonal rains. Due to the reduced production, there has been a decrease in supply in the mandis, and this year's cumin production is expected to be around 50 lakh bags.

The mandis have received a supply of 30,000 to 40,000 bags of cumin. Compared to last year, the supply of cumin in mandis has reduced by half. It's worth noting that cumin is sown between October and November and harvested between February and March, with March to May being the peak marketing season. Gujarat and Rajasthan are major states that produce cumin, with Gujarat accounting for 65% of the total production.

As of April 8th, cumin was priced at Rs. 25,000-42,000 per quintal in Gujarat and Rs. 22,000-40,000 per quintal in Rajasthan. Examining cumin export figures, 1.44 lakh tonnes of cumin were exported in the 2017-18 period, 2.14 lakh tonnes in 2019-20, 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2020-21, and 2.17 lakh tonnes in 2021-22.

Turning to cumin production figures, India produced 6.89 lakh tonnes of cumin in 2017-18, which increased to 7.01 lakh tonnes in 2018-19 and further to 9.12 lakh tonnes in 2019-20. However, the production decreased to 7.95 lakh tonnes in 2020-21 and to 7.36 lakh tonnes in 2021-22.

Skymet has recently released its forecast for the 2023 monsoon. According to Skymet, this year's monsoon is expected to be below normal, with a likelihood of 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). There is also a 40% chance of below-normal rainfall and a 20% chance of a drought due to the possibility of El Nino, which could result in reduced rainfall. The chance of normal rainfall is estimated to be 25%. Furthermore, it is predicted that there will be less rain over North and Central India, while North India is expected to receive normal rains in August and September.